Affinitive’s Social Media Playground

Yep, I’m doing it, looking ahead for the next year in social media and making predictions, even though I’m likely to get them all wrong.  The landscape changes so frequently, but looking back at what we thought would happen in 2011 compared to what actually happened can give us insight into which direction we might expect things to go in the year ahead.

Twitter is defining itself
Twitter is an incredible platform for real-time conversation and information sharing, but what will ultimately become of Twitter remains to be seen. Last year’s Twitter predictions ran the gamut from an acquisition, to copying Facebook with a Like button equivalent, to not innovating at all.

Twitter did innovate to be sure, the latest redesign shows that, by continuing to define its position as an information sharing and discovery platform.

This may lead to more people ‘getting’ Twitter and improving active user % thus giving brands broader access to customers.  And as Facebook and Google turn their gazes at one another, Twitter seems positioned to have a very good run in 2012.

Facebook will get even more user-focused
Facebook was going to hit 1 billion users and go public, nail ecommerce, become a search engine, launch a distributed ad network and more.

Facebook will get to a billion users soon for sure, and it seems Mark Zuckerberg is focused on making that happen. As Google+ continues to gain traction and lure brands with its SEO promises, expect Facebook to respond with innovative opportunities for brands to engage with customers.  Though this won’t be ecommerce, at least not until Facebook Credits goes mainstream.

Foursquare is fantastic, but location usage isn’t
2011 industry predictions were not all that rosy for location-based services (LBS), predicting many would consolidate or get acquired, and for the most part were right on this (Gowalla met this fate).

Foursquare  recently hit 15 million users and have innovated continuously with updates, features, and new partnerships. However, Forrester just released a sobering report stating only 5% of online adults use location apps at least once a month.  It seems the space just hasn’t yet hit its stride as a scalable marketing channel.  LBS apps will continue to evolve and expand their features leveraging sales and recommendations as key drivers in an attempt to increase utility and draw more users.  With smartphone adoption on the rise and reaching nearly 50% in the US by next year, 2012 will be the year location does or doesn’t hit the big time.

Very few thought Google would get it right
There was little confidence in Google’s social media efforts, having been disappointed by Buzz, Wave, and rumblings of in-fighting causing launch delays about its much talked about social product.

Google+ did finally launch, and while some people immediately dubbed it a failure, the social network’s outcome remains to be seen. Google+ is latching on to Gmail, YouTube, and likely other Google products soon to integrate its features into Google culture, which few if any of us are immune to. If it succeeds, Google+ becomes a utility vs simply a Facebook alternative, and that’s going to help give it legs in the race to capture the ‘Interest Graph’.

Were you wise or lucky enough to nail a 2011 prediction?  What’s got you excited about 2012?